Wednesday, July 2, 2014

May we humbly help USA Hockey with some numbers?


In the NHL draft 2014, USA Hockey was able to have 65 players or 31% of all drafted players.
This is something they proudly announce here
http://www.usahockey.com/news_article/show/398925?referrer_id=752796

That is good - and we are happy for USA Hockey that they in 2014 was able to have the highest numbers of drafted US-born Ice Hockey players since 1991.

The problem with this the reporting from USA Hockey - is that some numbers covering other nations are left out.
So let us do a little humble but rather straightforward comparison with Sweden.

We Claim: -Sweden has a hockey operation that is roughly a tenth in size - as compared to the USA. That means if Swedish hockey is big as a dime - USA Hockey is big as a dollar, or you can almost put ten fictive Swedish nations, or hockey systems, together to make them as big as the USA.
This means that you can do comparative comparisons on the scale of; one - to - ten.

Sweden had 28 players drafted 2014 to the NHL. - If USA - had the same kind of youth hockey development in place as the Swedes do - with ten times the size - well pure math say that the USA should not have 65 players drafted - but 28 x 10 = 280 players drafted to the NHL.
Yeah, we know it is kind of impossible.
But let us compare this the other way around too. Let us say Sweden performed exactly as good as the USA in youth hockey development - now using the US performance as the ruler. Well, with the same draft ratio as the USA have - Sweden would be able to have 6.5 players (well that is impossible too) - but if Sweden has, like 6 or 7 players drafted to the NHL - it would represent the same ratio as the USA shows.

Now things suddenly turns into the real interesting perspective. By using more math we can also say that 7 goes exactly 4 times into 28 and that could mean that Swedish hockey development is FOUR TIMES as able as the USA to provide players a draft ticket to the NHL. The same math say that 65 goes 4,3 times into 280 and this means by using those numbers in this paragraph; the Swedish system seems to be 4,3 times more able to produce drafted Hockey players..? Or are we wrong?
For the individual kid - it just means that a US-born player has a quarter of the chance to be drafted by the NHL - or The Swedish player has roughly a chance that is 4 times higher (ok remember that hardly no-one - I think we have seen somewhere 1 in 5000 is able to ever make it to the NHL out of all kids). Nope this was not a very special year in terms of drafted players from Sweden in 2011 the number was the same and in Canada they wrote this;
http://www.thestar.com/sports/hockey/2011/10/15/feschuk_floorball_gives_hockey_players_creative_edge.html

So both ways to count above indicate that the Swedish Hockey education is not 25%, 30% or 50% more able to produce drafted players as the USA - no they seem to be between 400-430% more effective to produce quality Ice Hockey players!?

Hmm, let us now say that our assumption that the Swedish Ice Hockey system is only a tenth in size compared to the USA is just dead wrong - let us instead say that the Swedish Ice Hockey education is instead a fifth in size as compared to the US Hockey system. So we can directly just cut the numbers above in half. Still the comparison shows that the Swedes are probably in-between 200-215% or roughly two times more efficient or able to get players drafted to the NHL.

What are the real numbers - well we do not know. Recent statistics state that Sweden has just below 70.000 licensed hockey player whereas the comparative number for the USA is well above 500.000. But these numbers on licensed players does not have too much to do with the numbers of young players - the group that we play number games with here.

Maybe we just should agree that Sweden is a very small country and the USA is a very large country.. and this goes as it comes to hockey too..

OPINION or... a
Disclaimer;
It is fully obnoxious to believe that you can describe human activity in cold numbers. Any reader must take numbers as of above with a big grain of salt - too much reality plays its part here. So do not count individual players as cold bits of information in a slew of numbers. As we have done above - it is just fully crazy.

But still - we should all be a bit humble over the accomplishment ALL of these young men have done - being either American or Swedish. They are all as lucky as can be, right.
The NHL draft might also generate other numbers in the future in terms of monetary value for these players - and someone else can perhaps play with the idea on where this monetary power might end up - as in possible future investments? Exports? Why not? We know Peter Forsberg has invested some good sums into Floorball for instance... ;-)

Anyway,
Our point with this post is only one - and one only:
We clearly and obviously in a humble way want to express our belief that Floorball will not hurt any level Ice Hockey player - and Floorball in school seems to work extremely well in some parts of the world where the very finest next generation hockey players are born, raised, and educated - right now at an almost unsurpassed pace.

If you seriously want to speed things up a bit - there is no shortcut to Floorball.

One more thing, the incredible advantage the Swedes seem to have - maybe it is something else beyond Floorball in the schools? But honestly we would not have a clue what this could be - but it can from our perspective not be as important as... Floorball - whatever u say.
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Caution

Research suggest that eye-injuries are more common in Floorball as compared to Tennis, but less common as compared to Squash (similar to Racquetball).
To minimize this risk of injury Floorballcentral recommend: Use certified protective eye-wear (mandated in many European areas for the youth). Do not lay down on the court. Follow the rules strict on stick height.

Also if you get addicted to this sport - do not blame us!