Thursday, May 31, 2012

Let’s put some spin on Germany






UPDATE!

We just discovered a bad mistake here - the German growth is not 18% as we say below, it is reported to be 14,5% between 2010-2011 so our numbers are a bit too high in our math below.
In reality it means that our estimation on 15% per year is a bit too high too.
But still if the growth continue at numbers in the range of 15% or slightly lower - in principle it means the same thing even if it is still a bit optimistic in terms of math.
But the big thing in this post is not the organic growth on a market like Germany - but the impact a possible Olympic game would have on these numbers - and that is something we can not figure out by using math.
We are sorry for this mistake and we will do our best to avoid embarrassing numbers that are wrong - our intent is to predict and to do this as good as possible, we missed a bit this time..
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here is the original post again,


So, we look at this and say - swell, it’s good development and soon Floorball will have 10.000 licensed players in Germany.... and that’s about it?
Yes, that is more or less what we did last time. We also said that a large part of Germany’s recent growth is among younger players and that some of the recruitement is tied to their school-systems.
Both these things spell or predict that the growth is here to stay. We also note that Germany’s own Floorball Federation states that higher German media penetration also is a possible factor for the growth over the last year.

Let’s now almost skip the history and shoot for the future instead. Between 2010 and 2011 Germany grew with about 18% in terms of licensed players. If we are a bit more modest and say that the growth in Germany will continue with, on average 15% per year - for a ten year span. Then Germany will not only surpass their own number of licensed Hockey Players in about 9 years (unverified sources points at approx 30.000 licensed Hockey players in Germany) and in ten years time about 38.000 Germans will have a Floorball license. Fine.
Can the number of Floorballplayers in Germany really surpass the number of Hockey-players? - Why not - it already happened in a bunch of other high profile “hockey countries” in Europe.

Finland has about 50.000 licenced Floorball players, so in only ten years time Germany will have the backbone of players (38.000) to fight for the big gold medals, if now this development holds for true. The main difference is that Finland is a more mature, smaller and less potential market (not explosive growth) - whereas Germany today is a large potential emerging market (with explosive growth).

Let us yet again insist that Floorballcentral think that Germany holds a golden key to unlock Floorball at the Global level. Yes, Singapore is crucial too.

Now we toss in Sweden, with some 120.000 licensed Floorball players.
Their population clocks in at some 9 million.
If this the same “Swedish trend” holds true for Germany and we add some more years into the crystal ball and say that Germany’s population is 82 Million roughly...
Simple math say that 9 M goes into 82 M about 9 times and this math theory predicts that Germany - with a similar penetration as in Sweden - will have about 1.1 Million licensed Floorballplayers in like 2040-2050.

The problems with our reasoning as of above is two folded. First the base we extrapolate from in Germany is not substantial enough to make the predictions our math theory is built upon.
Second this is just a theory and too many other factors may play a huge impact upon the future development in Germany.... Now comes the creepy part...
The reality is unpredictable - and with the real possibility that Floorball goes Olympic our math theory as of above may fall apart - it could be taking way too much time and be aiming way too low. Yes, we say that our wildest estimates here are - way too low! Read this line one more time please.

Maybe we should just conclude this post by saying - swell - but well - Germany has not even started to play Floorball yet...
And hey, tuck in that shirt of yours - since our forecast seems to predict waves of Floorball players storming in from all over.

One more thing - the same “numbers game” as of above done on the US population - if done right it would hint in the direction of 4 Million licensed Floorball-players in the US - but not even Floorballcentral thinks today- this to be possible - the only problem is that this is exactly what already happened in Sweden in relative terms - and it occurred without any talks of Olympic games and with rather crappy local sports coverage about Floorball in Sweden.

N.B. It also seems obvious that Floorball in school is the way forward.

Even if you feel like a lonely rebel today - it looks like we will go mainstream tomorrow.
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Caution

Research suggest that eye-injuries are more common in Floorball as compared to Tennis, but less common as compared to Squash (similar to Racquetball).
To minimize this risk of injury Floorballcentral recommend: Use certified protective eye-wear (mandated in many European areas for the youth). Do not lay down on the court. Follow the rules strict on stick height.

Also if you get addicted to this sport - do not blame us!